Updated site coming soon. Stay tuned.
- posted by Mark @ 7:00 PM
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
RACE FROZEN....PRESIDENT BUSH NARROWLY AHEAD
That's about the sum of it right now.
As I predicted earlier the Bush lead has stablilized at about 6-7 points, more importantly Bush has moved ahead in key states.
What is fueling this resurgence?
The return of the white working class to the President's camp, Yes the oft mocked Reagan Democrats/ Nascar Dads. I often disagree with Pollster john Zogby but on this question he is right on, from his latest poll
Pollster John Zogby: “The Kerry fizzle is striking. He receives only 77% support from Democratic Party voters and has a 7-point lead in the blue states (47%-40%), as compared to Bush’s 13-point lead in the red states (51%-38%). The fact that Bush is getting 15% of Democrats and 15% of liberals should be troublesome. Bush leads again among Catholics (48%-40%) whereas Kerry had a double-digit lead among them in August. The fact that 10% of African Americans say that they are ‘not sure’ is dangerous for Kerry.
“Kerry has got to re-focus his campaign to address economic anxiety and other issues that are obvious concerns for voters. Kerry leads among those who say that their top issues are jobs and the economy (50%-39%), education (48%-37%), the war in Iraq (50%-36%), and health care (50%-34%). But, among those who say that the ‘war on terrorism’ is their top concern, Bush leads by 41 points (66%-25%).
“Right now all the talk is on the ‘war on terrorism.’ Kerry has to change the talk.”
Look at some of those numbers, which demographic group is driving that? The President has only a 7 point disadvantage in the blue states. That's not because the frappacino drinking Volvo driving San Francisco and Ann Arbor residents are flocking to the GOP. It's because the Union blue collar workers of the industrial Midwest are rallying to the President. That is reinforced by the Presidents lead among Catholics.
Why? Because the President has done a masterful job painting John Kerry for who he is, a Boston liberal who doesnt share our values. Additionally, John Kerry is not ready to be commander in chief, as amply demonstrated by Zell Miller.
As pointed out here before the Kerry camp is split between the Clintonites and the Kennedyites, this combined with Kerry's own indecisive style and lack of principles have combined to create an undisciplined and unfocused campaign that often comes across as rambling and uncertain. Always a tough position to be in but fatal in wartime.
My advice to the President, keep on keeping on. You are a leader, lead. Prosecute the War on Terror to the fullest and never forget why we're in this war. Also, you are the Americana candidate, the candidate of All American values let us know this.
My advice to John Kerry. You need a Sister Souljah moment for socially moderate Democrats. Announce a truely religious Democrat to be in your cabinet, outreach to Reagan Dems.
Of course I don't belive John Kerry is capable of this but that's why I am supporting President George W. Bush. With pride.
I know some of you have seen my little post on the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders and doing a google search thats how you end up at my corner of the web. Well I am happy to say that one Miss Miceala Johnson popped in a few weeks back and left a wee comment in the comments box. So Thank you, Miss Johnson congratulations on your second year and best of luck in the forthcoming season. God Bless.
What a rip roaring barn burning speech. Scoop Jackson lives.Classic Southern Populism at its best. Was it too hot? I dont know. This was directed straight at the heart of Reagan Democrat country. And I know it reached mine.
Was it a speech I would have written? No I would have made it softer and had had Zell talk about ALL the issues in which the Democrats have gone way left, I would have included more contrast with his speech 12 years previous. But that being said, for a clear focus on National Security this was a golden one, and one that could have only been delivered by a Democrat. The Democrats and the Liberals are so agitated because they knew this was very effective. Note next time you see them criticize Zell, they never critique the substance only the tone. They CAN'T critique the substance, it was a roll call of Senator Kerry's votes. Here is the text of the speech.
Big shout out to Lorie Byrd of Polipundit who by her linkage to this site dramatically increased traffic here. Thanks mucho. If you haven't checked polipundit out, do it now. Particulary, Lorie's un common sense.
Like most normal Americans I am taking some time this weekend. Have a great one!
The President didn’t go into Iraq because the polls told him it was popular. As a matter of fact, the polls said just the opposite. But leadership isn’t about polls. It’s about making decisions you think are right and then standing behind those decisions. That’s why America is safer with George W. Bush as President.He knows you don’t reason with terrorists. You defeat them. He knows you can’t reason with people blinded by hate. They hate the power of the individual. They hate the progress of women. They hate the religious freedom of others. They hate the liberating breeze of democracy. But, ladies and gentlemen, their hate is no match for America’s decency.We’re the America that sends out Peace Corps volunteers to teach village children.We’re the America that sends out missionaries and doctors to raise up the poor and the sick. We’re the America that gives more than any other country, to fight aids in Africa and the developing world. And we’re the America that fights not for imperialism but for human rights and democracy.You know, When the Germans brought down the Berlin Wall — America’s determination helped wield the sledgehammers. When that lone, young Chinese man stood in front of those tanks in Tiananmen Square — America’s hopes stood with him. And when Nelson Mandela smiled in election victory after all those years in prison America celebrated, too.We are still the lamp lighting the world — especially for those who struggle. No matter in what labor camp they slave — no matter in what injustice they’re trapped — they hear our call … they see our light … and they feel the pull of our freedom. They come here — as I did — because they believe. They believe in US.
Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit Gets it right by refering us to Jeff Greenfield's comments
Arnold's speech evoked optimism, and enthusiasm for America and for the common man, in a way that -- once -- was associated with liberalism but that has now become a hallmark of the Republicans
The Kerry campaign is in full panic mode. Why? I don't know but apparantly they cut run at the first sign of trouble. Not very presidential. Divisions within the camp remain tense with the DLC types currently ( but for how long?) pushed aside in favor of the Bob Shrum leftists. We will see if that changes anytime soon.
Campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill ( the darling of last January's Iowa/ NH victories) is on ice, as is Mr. Shrum himself, and spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter.
For old time's sake here is Zell Miller's 1992 Democratic Keynote address. I am sure the Democrats will be publicizing this in response to Zell's speech tonight but quite frankly they will only be giving the GOP more ammunition, because nothing will highlight more how far to the left the Democrats have gone. Forgive his youthful indiscretion:
Listen to this voice.
It's a voice flavored by the Blue Ridge; a voice straight out of a remote valley hidden among the peaks and hollows of the Appalachian Mountains - a voice that's been described as more barbed wire than honeysuckle.
That this kind of voice could travel here from a forgotten corner of Appalachia is a testament to the grace of God and the greatness of the Democratic Party.
This week we are gathered here to nominate a man from a remote, rural corner of Arkansas to be president of the United States of America.
That is powerful proof that the American dream still lives - at least in the Democratic Party.
Bill Clinton is the only candidate for president who feels our pain, shares our hopes and will work his heart out to fulfill our dreams.
You see, I understand why Bill Clinton is so eager to see the American dream kept alive for a new generation.
Because I, too, was a product of that dream.
I was born during the worst of the Depression on a cold winter's day in the drafty bedroom of a rented house, and I was my parent's hope for the future.
Franklin Roosevelt was elected that year, and would soon replace generations of neglect with a whirlwind of activity, bringing to our little valley a very welcome supply of God's most precious commodity - hope.
My father, a teacher, died when I was two weeks old, leaving a young widow with two small children.
But with my mother's faith in God - and Mr. Roosevelt's voice on the radio - we kept going.
After my father's death, my mother with her own hands cleared a small piece of rugged land.
Every day she waded into a neighbor's cold mountain creek, carrying out thousands of smooth stones to build a house.
I grew up watching my mother complete that house from the rocks she'd lifted from the creek and cement she mixed in a wheelbarrow - cement that today still bears her hand prints.
Her son bears her hand prints, too.
She pressed her pride and her hopes and her dreams deep into my soul.
So, you see, I know what Dan Quayle means when he says it's best for children to have two parents.
You bet it is!
And it would be nice for them to have trust funds, too.
But we can't all be born rich and handsome and lucky. That's why we have a Democratic Party.
My family would still be isolated and destitute if we had not had FDR's Democratic brand of government. I made it because Franklin Delano Roosevelt energized this nation. I made it because Harry Truman fought for working families like mine. I made it because John Kennedy's rising tide lifted even our tiny boat.
I made it because Lyndon Johnson showed America that people who were born poor didn't have to die poor. And I made it because a man with whom I served in the Georgia Senate - a man named Jimmy Carter - brought honesty and decency and integrity to public service.
But what of the kids of today? Who fights for the child of a single mother today? Because without a government that is on their side, those children have no hope. And when a child has no hope, a nation has no future.
I am a Democrat because we are the party of hope. For twelve dark years the Republicans have dealt in cynicism and skepticism. They've mastered the art of division and diversion, and they have robbed us of our hope.
Too many mothers today cannot tell their children what my mother told me - that working hard and playing by the rules can make your dreams come true. For millions, the American dream has become what the poet called "a dream deferred." And if you recall the words of that poet-prophet, he warned us that a dream deferred can explode.
Robbed of hope, the voices of anger rise up, rise up from working Americans, who are tired of paying more in taxes and getting less in services. And George Bush doesn't get it?
Americans cannot understand why some can buy the best health care in the world, but all the rest of us get is rising costs and cuts in coverage - or no health insurance at all. And George Bush doesn't get it?
Americans cannot walk our streets in safety, because our ''tough-on-crime'' President has waged a phony war on drugs, posing for pictures while cutting police, prosecutors and prisons. And George Bush doesn't get it?
Americans have seen plants closed down, jobs shipped overseas and our hopes fade away as our economic position collapses right before our very eyes. And George Bush does not get it!
Four years ago, Mr. Bush told us he was a quiet man, who hears the voices of quiet people. Today, we know the truth: George Bush is a timid man who hears only the voices of caution and the status quo.
Let's face facts: George Bush just doesn't get it. He doesn't see it; he doesn't feel it, and he's done nothing about it.
That's why we cannot afford four more years.
If the "education president" gets another term, even our kids won't be able to spell potato.
If the "law and order president" gets another term, the criminals will run wild, because our commander-in-chief talks like Dirty Harry, but acts like Barney Fife.
If the "environmental president" gets another term, the fish he catches off Kennebunkport will have three eyes.
And folks, after January, George Bush is going to have plenty of time to go fishing.
So much for the millionaire. But we've still got ourselves a billionaire. A billionaire!
He says he's an outsider who will shake up the system in Washington. But as far back as 1974 he was lobbying Congress for tax breaks. He tried to turn $55,000 in contributions into a special $15 million tax loophole that was tailor-made for him. Sounds to me like instead of shaking the system up, Mr. Perot's been shaking it down.
Ross says he'll clean out the barn, but he's been knee deep in it for years.
If Ross Perot's an outsider, folks, I'm from Brooklyn. Mr. Perot's giving us salesmanship, not leadership. And we're not buying it.
And so the choice in this election is clear - we've got us a race between an aristocrat, an autocrat and a Democrat.
I know who I'm for. I'm for Bill Clinton because he is a Democrat who does not have to read a book or be briefed about the struggles of single-parent families, or what it means to work hard for everything he's ever received in life.
There was no silver spoon in sight when he was born, three months after his father died. No one ever gave Bill Clinton a free ride as he worked his way through college and law school. And the people at Yale couldn't believe it when he turned down a good job in Washington to return to Arkansas and teach.
Bill Clinton is a Democrat who has the courage to tell some of those liberals who think welfare should continue forever, and some of those conservatives who think there should be no welfare at all, that they're both wrong. He's a Democrat who will move people off the welfare rolls and onto the job rolls.
Bill Clinton is a Democrat who has the courage to lead a real war on crime here at home. And around the world he will be the kind of commander-in-chief this old Marine sergeant would be proud to follow.
That either one of us was able, one growing up in an Appalachian valley and the other in rural Arkansas, to eventually become governors of our states is a tribute to the American dream and yes, the Democratic Party that makes it a reality.
When I was growing up back in the mountains, whenever I felt like one of life's losers, my mother used to point to the one and only paved road in our valley - a narrow little strip that disappeared winding its way through a distant gap – and she'd say, "You know what's so great about this place? You can get anywhere in the world from here."
Thanks to her and to God, the United States Marine Corps and the Democratic Party, I did go somewhere. But I've never really left that mountain valley. Shirley and I, our children and their children still live in the Appalachian town of Young Harris, Georgia, and tonight, one of my sons is sitting in front of the television set in the living room of that same rock house my mother and her neighbors built so many years ago.
Tonight, let our message be heard in every living room in every home in America. Wherever families and friends are gathered, let them know this:
We have a leader and a party and a platform that says to the everyday working people of this country: We will fight your fight; we will ease your burden; we will carry your cause.
We will hear all the voices of America - from the silky harmonies of the Gospel choirs to the rough-edged rhythms of a hot country band; from the razor's edge rap of the inner city to the soaring beauty of the finest soprano.
We hear your voice, America.
We hear your voice. We will answer your call. We will keep the faith. And we will restore your hope.
Thank you. God bless you. And God bless America.
I intend to post more on Southern Democrats and the Republican Party later.
The question isn't whether Bush will win Lancaster County, but by how much. The national party wants to squeeze enough votes out of the conservative electorate to offset traditionally heavy Democratic turnout in urban centers such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
With Pennsylvania and its sought-after electoral votes in the balance, both Bush and Democrat John Kerry are shoring up support all across the state. New Lancaster County residents such as Demianczyk, who grew up in Philadelphia and lived in Bucks County two years ago, are the ones Rove has his sights on.
At the Republican National Convention on Monday, Rove singled out Lancaster County as one of the pivotal exurbs in the Bush strategy to keep control of the White House.
Lancaster County - a part of the conservative "T" that runs across the northern part of Pennsylvania and down the central part of the state - is solidly Republican. The last time a Democratic candidate for president won here was in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson squeaked by Barry Goldwater by less than 1,000 votes.
Sorry for lack of posts recently y'all but this field work for Bush campaign is heating up as can be expected, only 60 days left ya know! Register here
Few thoughts on the GOP convention. I was surprised at how pleased I was with Senator McCain's speech. He was direct and I think his words would resonate well with swing voters.
Rudy was Rudy, great as always. As a ex-New Yorker ( I was born and raised there) Giuliani has a certain style which always works well in New York and I enjoy but I sometimes wonder how it plays outside the NYC area. But last night i thought Rudy did an excellent job at 2 things
1- Attacking Kerry. McCain referred to Kerry but Rudy eviscerated him. As someone who has impecable anti-terrorist credentials he was the man to do it.
2- Highlighting the President's connection with the ordinary working man. Rudy had it and so does W. The story about the construction worker was great. This was emphasized with the live video feed to the Milwaukee firefighters and the live endorsement from the NYPD Sergeant's Association. Great work guys!!
Those endorsements highlight the growing disconnect between the union leadership and the ordinary working man. It's time to fight back!
Bush from Gettysburg tonight. Nice touch. A great struggle, dark moments, and a vision for a better tomorrow.
At the risk of tooting my own horn. I would refer you to my post of July 5th with my electoral prediction which looks pretty good around now about the dynamics of this race and the polling numbers of the President. Stay tuned!
It does seem that the predictions were right and that there is an Olympian ceasefire this week. Oh sure, the 527's are still firing away and the Bush campaign launched a new ad ripping into Kerry's votes and non appearances on the Senate Intel Committee but for the most part things have been quiet and to that the American people say "Thank God!"
What would a blog be without the requisite Olympic news. So here here and here. Enjoy guys!
For all the back and forth over this whether it is an advance for women or a setback, the irony of the femi-nazis complaining while at the same time the agitate for get "your laws off of my body" is amusing to watch.
Why isn't this photo on the front pages of all national newspapers? Oh yeah it might help the President.
What a great story about the Iraqi soccer team. Go for the gold!!
What a crap story about the US Basketball team. Give the boot to the NBA players. Rich, spoiled selfish brats. I feel bad for Layy Brown.Enough already.
What is there to say about NJ Governor Jim McGreevy? Well a few things. The fact that it was a gay affair is probably helping him out as it obscures the complete and reckless nature of his activities. Second, don't be too upset for his wife it was/is a political marriage and she was always a political prop. Third, back where I come from they would call him a bi-sexual but you see they don't have an effective political movement so he declares himself a homosexual and the media go along with it, as CNN put it "an historic moment." What crap!
The NJ GOP has its own share of corruption and scandal. Don't expect too much from them.
Bible study at Hooters. Wish I had thought of it first. Oh I did, just never followed through. God Bless y'all. Here is their site. Since I first saw this story their number of hits has tripled. Talk about outreach.
Kristin Brooks, a 20-year-old Kennesaw State University student, said she values the weekly sessions at Hooters for their "practical life lessons" and opportunities for evangelism.
The Rev. Dennis Rogers, a Southern Baptist and member of Single Focus' board of directors, added that the spirit of the group is to go where conventional ministries do not.
Said Rogers: "It's something Jesus would've done because he looked past what people may think and looked at what people's needs are."
I know its a minor point but what's up with the font on the Kerry-Edwards logo? Looks like it was written for a stylized, New England, French speaking elitist. Oh wait its just perfect!
Take a good long hard look at Montgomery Gentry's latest video. Nice work guys Awesome lyrics.
Put me on a mountain, way back in the back woods
Put me on a lake with pickin on the line
Put me 'round a campfire cookin' something I just cleaned
You do your thing, I'll do mine
I ain't tradin' in my family's safety Just to save a little gas
And I'll pray to God any place, any time
And you can bet I'll pick up the phone if Uncle Sam calls me up
You do your thing, I'll do mine
Hey, I'll worry about me
You just worry about you
And I'll believe what I believe
And you believe what you believe too
I ain't gonna spare the rod
Cuz that ain't what my daddy did
And I sure know the difference between wrong and right
You know, to me it's all just common sense
A broken rule, a consequence
You do your thing, I'll do mine
Hey, I'll worry about meYou just worry about you
And I'll believe what I believe
And you believe what you believe too
I'm gonna keep on working hardMake my money the old-fashioned way
I don't wanna piece of someone else's pie
If I don't get my fill on life
I ain't gonna blame no one but me
You do your thing, I'll do mine
You ain't gonna be my judge
Cuz my judge will judge us all one day
You do your thing, I'll do mine
Howdy folks! Well, I am returned and boy do I have some good stuff in my bag of tricks today.
Well, I must confess my surprise at the non existent convention bounce for Kerry. I thought it would be unusually small but non existent was quite the surprise. I will go out on a limb here and say that the GOP convention WILL produce a bounce. A smaller bounce than usual perhaps yet a significant bounce. My money would be on a 5-6 point Bush lead on Labor day. The media have routinely complained about the convention simply being a paid commercial yet the Democrat's one was quite the poor one. The GOP one, barring Chicago 68 like protests ( the NYPD will handle that far better than we imagine so I doubt that will be a problem) will be a better commercial. Rudy, Arnie, and Zell will be persuasive and interesting speakers that will increase tune in factor and this president always seems to rise to the big occasion during important speeches.
ABC NEWS' usually balanced and sober The Note states today that the race is Kerry's to lose, that is a very odd statement considering nothing new has developed in the race in the past week. I would say if after the GOP convention and 9/11 anniversary one still sees a 2-3 point Kerry lead then one could say it is Kerry's race to lose.
The Democrats open and diverse convention of course carried on one important party tradition (since 1992) excluded pro-life Democrats from the convention. The one pro-life Democrat who was allowed to speak was actually given the task of speaking on the anti-life position of support for stem cell research. Coverage of Democrats for Life at the convention can be found here, here and here.
Two asides, The aforementioned Note says it cannot find any Gore voters who will back Bush this year. Puh-leeze, Zell? Ed Koch?
Secondly, embryonic stem cell research is a morally complex and critical issue. I don't claim to be an expert but from what I understand I belive that it is morally wrong and should be restricted but the Democrats use of this issue is so over the top as to be aburd, I mean seriously whatever one's position on the issue do we want an administration which is so gung ho that it never even stops to consider the moral implications of the issue.
Statistic of the month from WashPost/ABC News poll:
34% of Republicans are ex-Democrats only 11% of Democrats are ex-Republicans.
Hmm wonder if abortion, gay marriage, guns, and God could have anything do with it? What a ridiculous notion :-)